What comparable work actually closed at
Buyers publish who won and at what price. Almost nobody reads it. That published record is the difference between quoting from evidence and quoting from instinct.
Bubble size = number of bidders. Green = won below the department estimate.
| Winner | Buyer | Value | vs est | Bids |
|---|
Comparables, not averages
Same category, same buyer where the sample supports it, same value band. A median of two awards is a coin toss dressed up as analysis, so the product widens the ring and says it did.
The band, not a number
Where a credible bid lands, p25 to p75 of comparable awards, and the point below which the margin usually stops being real once the PBG and retention are priced in.
Buyer behaviour
Median discount, typical field size, and how concentrated the awards are. If three names take most of a buyer’s work, there is an incumbent and you should know before you spend a week on the pack.
Competitor profiles
Where each firm wins, which buyers they win from, and how aggressively they price, built entirely from published award notices.
Who you are bidding against
Questions
Where does the data come from?
Award and result notices published by the buyer after financial opening. Nothing is sourced from private records, and no bidder submits anything to appear in the corpus.
What if there are no comparables?
The product says so rather than inventing a number. Confidence is stated on every read, and a thin sample is labelled as thin.
Does this tell me what to bid?
It tells you what comparable work closed at and how big the field usually is. The quote is yours, the product refuses to pretend a median is a decision.
The rest of the product
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